24-Month Study Model (24MS) - Revision history

JeffreyJLukas at 21:35, 29 November 2022

2022-11-29T21:35:27Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:35, 29 November 2022
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	===State of the Science Report===		===State of the Science Report===

	[https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/ColoRiver_StateOfScience_WWA_2020_Chapter_3.pdf Chapter 3] of the State of the Science report, ''Primary Planning Tools,'' describes the three primary Reclamation system models in detail.		[https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/ColoRiver_StateOfScience_WWA_2020_Chapter_3.pdf Chapter 3] of the State of the Science report, ''Primary Planning Tools,'' describes the three primary Reclamation system models in detail.

	~~==Research Directions==~~



	~~==New and Notable Research (2020-present)==~~

	~~'''[<URL FOR PAPER>]'''~~

	~~''Summary''~~

Admin: /* Supplemental 24-Month Study runs */

2021-04-20T15:18:56Z

Supplemental 24-Month Study runs

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:18, 20 April 2021
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	===Supplemental 24-Month Study runs===		===Supplemental 24-Month Study runs===

	As noted above, two supplemental runs of 24MS are performed either 4 times per year, or monthly, depending on projected reservoir conditions. These runs, based on ''probable minimum'' and ''probable maximum'' inflows, bracket the uncertainty in the primary run.		As noted above, two supplemental runs of 24MS are performed either 4 times per year, or monthly, depending on projected reservoir conditions. These runs, based on ''probable minimum'' and ''probable maximum'' inflows, bracket the uncertainty in the primary run.

	[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/~~water~~/~~crsp~~/~~studies~~/ Probable Min/Probable Max runs]		[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/index.html Probable Min/Probable Max runs]
	</onlyinclude>		</onlyinclude>

Admin at 22:58, 14 April 2021

2021-04-14T22:58:40Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:58, 14 April 2021
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	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==

			<onlyinclude>
	===24-Month Study Reports===		===24-Month Study Reports===

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	[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Probable Min/Probable Max runs]		[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Probable Min/Probable Max runs]
			</onlyinclude>

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==

Admin: /* Model Structure and Operation */

2021-04-14T18:18:28Z

Model Structure and Operation

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:18, 14 April 2021
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	[[File:MTOM_CRB_view.png\|thumb\|400px\|Figure 1. While this shows the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) in ''object view'', MTOM's model structure and objects are very similar to those of the 24-Month Study Model (24MS), including the 12 reservoirs in the bullet list at left, which are shown with the purple triangles. (Source: Reclamation)]]		[[File:MTOM_CRB_view.png\|thumb\|400px\|Figure 1. While this shows the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) in ''object view'', MTOM's model structure and objects are very similar to those of the 24-Month Study Model (24MS), including the 12 reservoirs in the bullet list at left, which are shown with the purple triangles. (Source: Reclamation)]]

	Basically, 24MS takes a projected inflow sequence and runs it through prescribed operational rules at 12 Reclamation reservoirs to project the monthly conditions at those reservoirs over the next 24 months. A total of 19 inflow points are used to represent both inflows to those reservoirs and intervening flows between reservoirs.		Basically, 24MS takes a projected inflow sequence and runs it through prescribed operational rules at 12 Reclamation reservoirs to project the monthly conditions at those reservoirs over the next 24 months. A total of 16 inflow points are used to represent both inflows to those reservoirs and intervening flows between reservoirs.

	The inflow sequences are provided by the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) and are based on a blend of CBRFC's [[seasonal streamflow forecasts]] and average historical inflows, depending on (1) the month when 24MS is run, and (2) the future month that is projected.		The inflow sequences are provided by the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) and are based on a blend of CBRFC's [[seasonal streamflow forecasts]] and average historical inflows, depending on (1) the month when 24MS is run, and (2) the future month that is projected.
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	Additionally, four times a year (January, April, August, October), two additional 24MS runs are done, using ''probable minimum '' and ''probable maximum'' inflow sequences provided by CBRFC. These two runs, which represent 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities, help bracket the uncertainty in the main ''most probable'' run. Under the terms of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plans, whenever a ''probable minimum'' run shows Powell going below 3525' at any time in the next 24 months (as happened in January 2021), both of these additional 24MS runs are done monthly instead of four times per year to provide basin stakeholders with additional guidance to prepare for drought impacts.		Additionally, four times a year (January, April, August, October), two additional 24MS runs are done, using ''probable minimum '' and ''probable maximum'' inflow sequences provided by CBRFC. These two runs, which represent 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities, help bracket the uncertainty in the main ''most probable'' run. Under the terms of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plans, whenever a ''probable minimum'' run shows Powell going below 3525' at any time in the next 24 months (as happened in January 2021), both of these additional 24MS runs are done monthly instead of four times per year to provide basin stakeholders with additional guidance to prepare for drought impacts.


	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==

Admin at 21:48, 13 April 2021

2021-04-13T21:48:49Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:48, 13 April 2021
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	===24-Month Study Reports===		===24-Month Study Reports===

	The output of the monthly ~~primary~~ run of the 24-Month Study Model is released around the 15th of each month. These results are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages. The Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary. Note that both report "flavors" contain the results for both Upper Basin and Lower Basin reservoirs.		The output of the primary monthly run of the 24-Month Study Model (using ''most probable'' inflows) is released around the 15th of each month. These results are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages. The Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary. Note that both report "flavors" contain the results for both Upper Basin and Lower Basin reservoirs.

	[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Upper Colorado Region		[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Upper Colorado Region
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	[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/index.html 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Lower Colorado Region		[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/index.html 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Lower Colorado Region

	[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ ~~Additional 24 MS runs:~~ Probable Min/Probable Max]		===Supplemental 24-Month Study runs===

			As noted above, two supplemental runs of 24MS are performed either 4 times per year, or monthly, depending on projected reservoir conditions. These runs, based on ''probable minimum'' and ''probable maximum'' inflows, bracket the uncertainty in the primary run.

			[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Probable Min/Probable Max runs]

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==

Admin: /* 24-Month Study Reports */

2021-04-13T21:45:40Z

24-Month Study Reports

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:45, 13 April 2021
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	===24-Month Study Reports===		===24-Month Study Reports===

	The output of the monthly primary run of the 24-Month Study Model is released around the 15th of each month. These results are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages. The Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs ~~for the reports available on their webpages~~, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary ~~for the reports~~. Note that both report "flavors" contain the results for both Upper Basin and Lower Basin reservoirs.		The output of the monthly primary run of the 24-Month Study Model is released around the 15th of each month. These results are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages. The Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary. Note that both report "flavors" contain the results for both Upper Basin and Lower Basin reservoirs.

	[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Upper Colorado Region		[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Upper Colorado Region
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	[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Additional 24 MS runs: Probable Min/Probable Max]		[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Additional 24 MS runs: Probable Min/Probable Max]


	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==

Admin at 21:44, 13 April 2021

2021-04-13T21:44:12Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:44, 13 April 2021
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	24MS is used for short-term (1-2 years) projections for operational decision-making, and is typically run in a deterministic mode, meaning that a single inflow scenario is used to generate a single output trace for analysis. The model is run every month to provide operational updates as inflow hydrology forecasts and demand projections evolve.		24MS is used for short-term (1-2 years) projections for operational decision-making, and is typically run in a deterministic mode, meaning that a single inflow scenario is used to generate a single output trace for analysis. The model is run every month to provide operational updates as inflow hydrology forecasts and demand projections evolve.

	The ~~results~~ of the ~~monthly runs of~~ 24MS ~~are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages, known~~ as 24-Month Study Reports. However, the Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package and distribute this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary.		The output of the primary 24MS run is packaged and distributed as the 24-Month Study Reports.

	==Relevance==		==Relevance==
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	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==

	===24-Month Study ~~Model~~ Reports===		===24-Month Study Reports===

	The output of the 24-Month Study Model is released ~~monthly~~ on ~~about~~ the ~~15tt of~~ the ~~month~~.		The output of the monthly primary run of the 24-Month Study Model is released around the 15th of each month. These results are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages. The Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs for the reports available on their webpages, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary for the reports. Note that both report "flavors" contain the results for both Upper Basin and Lower Basin reservoirs.

	Upper Colorado Region		[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Upper Colorado Region

			[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/index.html 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Lower Colorado Region

			[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Additional 24 MS runs: Probable Min/Probable Max]

	*[[Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM)]]
	*[[Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS)]]

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==

Admin: /* Data and Tools */

2021-04-13T21:31:58Z

Data and Tools

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:31, 13 April 2021
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	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==

	~~Data and tools for~~ the ~~primary Reclamation models are listed~~ on ~~their respective pages:~~		===24-Month Study Model Reports===

			The output of the 24-Month Study Model is released monthly on about the 15tt of the month.

			Upper Colorado Region


	*[[24-Month Study Model (24MS)]]
	*[[Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM)]]		*[[Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM)]]
	*[[Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS)]]		*[[Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS)]]

Admin at 21:30, 13 April 2021

2021-04-13T21:30:00Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:30, 13 April 2021
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	==Model Structure and Operation==		==Model Structure and Operation==

	[[File:MTOM_CRB_view.png\|thumb\|400px\|Figure 1. While this shows the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) in ''object view'', ~~the~~ model structure and objects are very similar to those of the 24-Month Study Model (24MS), including the 12 reservoirs, which are shown with the purple triangles. (Source: Reclamation)]]		[[File:MTOM_CRB_view.png\|thumb\|400px\|Figure 1. While this shows the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) in ''object view'', MTOM's model structure and objects are very similar to those of the 24-Month Study Model (24MS), including the 12 reservoirs in the bullet list at left, which are shown with the purple triangles. (Source: Reclamation)]]

	Basically, 24MS takes a projected inflow sequence and runs it through prescribed operational rules at 12 Reclamation reservoirs to project the monthly conditions at those reservoirs over the next 24 months. A total of 19 inflow points are used to represent both inflows to those reservoirs and intervening flows between reservoirs.		Basically, 24MS takes a projected inflow sequence and runs it through prescribed operational rules at 12 Reclamation reservoirs to project the monthly conditions at those reservoirs over the next 24 months. A total of 19 inflow points are used to represent both inflows to those reservoirs and intervening flows between reservoirs.

Admin at 21:28, 13 April 2021

2021-04-13T21:28:30Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:28, 13 April 2021
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	==Model Structure and Operation==		==Model Structure and Operation==

	[[File:MTOM_CRB_view.png\|thumb\|400px\|Figure 1. While this shows the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) in ''object view," the model structure and objects are very similar to those of the 24-Month Study Model (24MS), including the 12 reservoirs, which are shown with the purple triangles. (Source: Reclamation)]]		[[File:MTOM_CRB_view.png\|thumb\|400px\|Figure 1. While this shows the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) in ''object view'', the model structure and objects are very similar to those of the 24-Month Study Model (24MS), including the 12 reservoirs, which are shown with the purple triangles. (Source: Reclamation)]]

	Basically, 24MS takes a projected inflow sequence and runs it through prescribed operational rules at 12 Reclamation reservoirs to project the monthly conditions at those reservoirs over the next 24 months. A total of 19 inflow points are used to represent both inflows to those reservoirs and intervening flows between reservoirs.		Basically, 24MS takes a projected inflow sequence and runs it through prescribed operational rules at 12 Reclamation reservoirs to project the monthly conditions at those reservoirs over the next 24 months. A total of 19 inflow points are used to represent both inflows to those reservoirs and intervening flows between reservoirs.