Colorado River extremes - Revision history

TanyaPetach at 18:15, 2 September 2022

2022-09-02T18:15:31Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:15, 2 September 2022
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	\| In 2020, Arizona’s monsoon was characterized as a “nonsoon” for delivering near record low precipitation.		\| In 2020, Arizona’s monsoon was characterized as a “nonsoon” for delivering near record low precipitation.
	\|}		\|}

	~~==Relevance==~~

	~~==Data and Tools==~~

	~~==Additional Resources==~~

TanyaPetach: TanyaPetach moved page Colorado River Extremes to Colorado River extremes

2022-09-01T20:44:15Z

TanyaPetach moved page Colorado River Extremes to Colorado River extremes

← Older revision	Revision as of 16:44, 1 September 2022
(No difference)

TanyaPetach at 20:43, 1 September 2022

2022-09-01T20:43:03Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:43, 1 September 2022
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	==Overview==		==Overview==
	Colorado River ~~Extremes table~~		Events of Concern and their linkages to climate change in the Colorado River Basin.

			Adapted from McCoy, A. L., Jacobs, K. L., Vano, J. A., Wilson, J. K., Martin, S., Pendergrass, A. G., & Cifelli, R. (2022). The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"

TanyaPetach at 21:42, 15 August 2022

2022-08-15T21:42:46Z

TanyaPetach at 21:31, 15 August 2022

2022-08-15T21:31:43Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:31, 15 August 2022
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	\| In 2013, the “Front Range Flood” in Colorado resulted from record rainfall and urban runoff volumes.		\| In 2013, the “Front Range Flood” in Colorado resulted from record rainfall and urban runoff volumes.
	\|-		\|-
	\|		\| 5b. Short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks
	\| Rapid onset dry year (flash drought)		\| Rapid onset dry year (flash drought)
	\| - Water shortages<br />- Agricultural losses<br />- Recreation limited<br />- Increased fire danger		\| - Water shortages<br />- Agricultural losses<br />- Recreation limited<br />- Increased fire danger

TanyaPetach: TanyaPetach moved page ColoradoRiverExtremes to Colorado River Extremes: Renamed to have spaces between words

2022-08-15T21:26:08Z

TanyaPetach moved page ColoradoRiverExtremes to Colorado River Extremes: Renamed to have spaces between words

← Older revision	Revision as of 17:26, 15 August 2022
(No difference)

TanyaPetach: Created page with "==Overview== Colorado River Extremes table {| class="wikitable" |- ! Events of Concern Noted by Water Managers ! Climate-Change Trend Defined ! Impact of Change ! Linkage t..."

2022-08-15T21:25:30Z

Created page with "==Overview== Colorado River Extremes table {| class="wikitable" |- ! Events of Concern Noted by Water Managers ! Climate-Change Trend Defined ! Impact of Change ! Linkage t..."

New page

==Overview==
Colorado River Extremes table

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Events of Concern Noted by Water Managers
! Climate-Change Trend Defined
! Impact of Change
! Linkage to Climate Change Drivers
! Relevant Research*
! A Recent Example (details in text)
|-
| 1. Intensifying heat waves
| Hotter periods that last longer
| - Air quality declines - Water quality declines - Increased fire danger - Ecosystem mortality events - Health and safety impacts, especially for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations
| greenhouse gases trap more heat, lead to warmer temperatures
| US: Meehl et al., 2009; Cutting et al., 2011; Wuebbles et al., 2017; Fahey et al., 2017; Vose et al., 2017 Global: Guo et al., 2018; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021
| In the summer of 2020 and 2021, the Colorado River Basin experienced heat wave conditions that exceeded multiple records for consecutive number of days, with temperatures surpassing historical conditions.
|-
| 2. Diminished snowpack
| Less precipitation falls as snow vs. rain, snowmelt occurs earlier
| - Reduced streamflow - Earlier peak flows - Water shortages - Recreation limited
| more precipitation falls as rain than as snow, warmer temperatures cause early snowmelt
| Basin specific: Reynolds et al., 2020 Western US: Barnett et al., 2005; McCabe et al., 2007; Barnhart et al., 2016; Harpold and Molotch, 2015; Li et al., 2017; Harpold and Kohler, 2017; Painter et al., 2018; Yan et al., 2018; Musselman et al., 2017, 2018, 2021; Davenport et al. 2020 US: Berghuijs et al., 2014
| Snowpack monitoring stations throughout the West reveal that snowmelt is already occurring earlier in the year.
|-
| 3. Long-duration drying (Sustained declines in runoff efficiency)
| Streamflow declines even when the same amount of water falls as precipitation
| - Reduced streamflow - Water shortages - Agriculture declines
| warmer, thirstier atmosphere leads to more evaporation/ transpiration/ sublimation of water, drier soils, and less water reaching streams before returning to atmosphere
| Basin specific: Vano et al. 2012, 2014; Woodhouse et al., 2016, 2021; McCabe et al. 2017; Udall and Overpeck, 2017; Hoerling et al., 2019 Western US: Das et al., 2011; Gonzalez et al., 2018 US: McCabe and Wolock, 2016
| The Upper Colorado River Basin in 2020 and 2021 had unexpectly low run-off volumes.
|-
| 4. Extensive wildfires
| More areas burned
| - Public safety threatened - Air quality declines - Water quality declines - Increased erosion
| increased temperatures, increase drying and reduce snowpack while lengthening the fire season
| Western US: Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; Jenkins et al., 2014; Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Holden et al., 2018; Kean et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2020; Brey et al., 2021 US: Wehner et al., 2017
| In 2020, Colorado experienced the three largest wildfires in recorded history.
|-
| 5. Short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks
| Precipitation intensity increases; each storm brings more water
| - Flooding - Increased erosion - Dam safety concerns + Increased groundwater recharge in some locations + Drought relief
| a warmer atmosphere holds more water, so when it rains or snows there a great chance that more precipitation will fall in any given event; additionally, storm are now developing in warmer and more humid environments, ocean surface temperatures drive an increase worldwide in size and amount of storms
| Basin specific: Gutmann et al., 2016; Shamir et al., 2019; Corringham et al., 2019 Western US: Zhu and Newell, 1994; Corbosiero et al., 2009; Dettinger, 2013; Rutz et al., 2015; Alexander et al., 2015; Swales et al., 2016; Demaria et al., 2019; Gershunov et al., 2019; Davenport et al., 2020; Payne et al., 2020; Rhoades et al., 2020; US: Easterling et al., 2017; Kossin et al., 2017 Global: Trenberth, 2011; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014; Swann et al., 2016; Fischer and Knutti, 2016; Simpson et al., 2016; Kossin et al., 2017; Pendergrass et al., 2017; Sippel et al., 2019; Heinze-Deml et al., 2020;
| In 2013, the “Front Range Flood” in Colorado resulted from record rainfall and urban runoff volumes.
|-
|
| Rapid onset dry year (flash drought)
| - Water shortages - Agricultural losses - Recreation limited - Increased fire danger
| large-scale atmospheric circulation changes increase temperatures, modify precipitation, reduce cloud cover, and increase wind speeds
| Great Plains and Eastern US: Hoell et al., 2020; Ford and Labosier, 2017 US: Otkin et al., 2018; Christian et al., 2019; Pendergrass et al., 2020 Global: Hoffmann et al., 2021
| Recent example not within the Colorado River Basin.
|-
| 6. Amplified wet and dry swings (climate whiplash)
| Multi-year dry spells broken by a couple of very wet years 
| - Dam safety concerns - Increased erosion - Management challenge (expecting drought and get too much rain instead)
| a combination of more moisture and weakening of overall atmospheric circulation results in a drought-pluvial see-saw
| California/Western US: Swain et al., 2018; Wahl et al. 2020; Dettinger 2013 Global: He and Sheffield, 2020; Pendergrass et al., 2017; Pendergrass and Gerber 2016; Konapala et al. 2017; Schwarzwald et al., 2021
| July 2021 was the wettest month on record in Tucson, which came after the "nonsoon" of 2020.
|-
| 7. Dramatic decline in monsoons
| Timing of monsoon is later or no monsoon Average rainfall from monsoons lessens Change in frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events
| - Water shortages - Agriculture loses - Less relief from summer heat
| warmer temperatures change atmospheric circulation patterns in ways that inhibit convection and cloud formation
| Southwest US: Cook and Seager, 2013; Pascale et al., 2017; Luong et al., 2017; Demaria et al., 2019; Carroll et al., 2020 Global: Emori and Brown et al. 2005; Wang et al., 2021
| In 2020, Arizona’s monsoon was characterized as a “nonsoon” for delivering near record low precipitation.
|}

==Relevance==

==Data and Tools==

==Additional Resources==

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:42, 15 August 2022
Line 4:		Line 4:
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|-		\|-
	! Events of Concern Noted by Water Managers		! Events of Concern Noted by Water Managers
	! Climate-Change Trend Defined		! Climate-Change Trend Defined
	! Impact of Change		! Impact of Change
Line 11:		Line 11:
	! A Recent Example (details in text)		! A Recent Example (details in text)
	\|-		\|-
	\| 1. Intensifying heat waves		\| Intensifying heat waves
	\| Hotter periods that last longer		\| Hotter periods that last longer
	\| - Air quality declines<br />- Water quality declines<br />- Increased fire danger<br />- Ecosystem mortality events<br />- Health and safety impacts, especially for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations		\| - Air quality declines<br />- Water quality declines<br />- Increased fire danger<br />- Ecosystem mortality events<br />- Health and safety impacts, especially for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations
	\| greenhouse gases trap more heat, lead to warmer temperatures		\| greenhouse gases trap more heat,<br /> lead to warmer temperatures
	\| US: Meehl et al., 2009; Cutting et al., 2011; Wuebbles et al., 2017; Fahey et al., 2017; Vose et al., 2017~~<br /><br />~~<br />Global: Guo et al., 2018; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021		\| US: Meehl et al., 2009; Cutting et al., 2011; Wuebbles et al., <br />2017; Fahey et al., 2017; Vose et al., 2017<br />Global: Guo et al., 2018; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021
	\| In the summer of 2020 and 2021, the Colorado River Basin experienced heat wave conditions that exceeded multiple records for consecutive number of days, with temperatures surpassing historical conditions.		\| In the summer of 2020 and 2021, the<br /> Colorado River Basin experienced heat<br /> wave conditions that exceeded multiple records<br /> for consecutive number of days,<br /> with temperatures surpassing historical <br />conditions.
	\|-		\|-
	\| 2. Diminished snowpack		\| Diminished snowpack
	\| Less precipitation falls as snow vs. rain, snowmelt occurs earlier		\| Less precipitation falls as snow vs. rain, <br /> snowmelt occurs earlier
	\| - Reduced streamflow<br />- Earlier peak flows<br />- Water shortages<br />- Recreation limited		\| - Reduced streamflow<br />- Earlier peak flows<br />- Water shortages<br />- Recreation limited
	\| more precipitation <br />falls as rain than as snow, warmer temperatures cause early snowmelt		\| more precipitation <br />falls as rain than as snow, <br />warmer temperatures cause early snowmelt
	\| Basin specific: Reynolds et al., 2020<br /><br /><br />Western US: Barnett et al., 2005; McCabe et al., 2007; Barnhart et al., 2016; Harpold and Molotch, 2015; Li et al., 2017; Harpold and Kohler, 2017; Painter et al., 2018; Yan et al., 2018; Musselman et al., 2017, 2018, 2021; Davenport et al. 2020<br /><br /><br />US: Berghuijs et al., 2014		\| Basin specific: Reynolds et al., 2020<br /><br /><br />Western US: Barnett et al., 2005; McCabe et al., 2007; Barnhart et al., 2016; Harpold and Molotch, 2015; Li et al., 2017; Harpold and Kohler, 2017; Painter et al., 2018; Yan et al., 2018; Musselman et al., 2017, 2018, 2021; Davenport et al. 2020<br /><br /><br />US: Berghuijs et al., 2014
	\| Snowpack monitoring stations throughout the West reveal that snowmelt is already occurring earlier in the year.		\| Snowpack monitoring stations throughout the West reveal that snowmelt is already occurring earlier in the year.
	\|-		\|-
	\| 3. Long-duration drying (Sustained declines in runoff efficiency)		\| Long-duration drying (Sustained declines in runoff efficiency)
	\| Streamflow declines even when the same amount of water falls as precipitation		\| Streamflow declines even when the same amount of water falls as precipitation
	\| - Reduced streamflow<br />- Water shortages<br />- Agriculture declines		\| - Reduced streamflow<br />- Water shortages<br />- Agriculture declines
	\| warmer, thirstier atmosphere leads to more evaporation/ transpiration/ sublimation ~~<br />~~of water, drier soils, and less water reaching streams before returning to atmosphere		\| warmer, thirstier atmosphere leads to more <br />evaporation/ transpiration/ sublimation of water, drier soils, and less water <br />reaching streams before returning to atmosphere
	\| Basin specific: Vano et al. 2012, 2014; Woodhouse et al., 2016, 2021; McCabe et al. 2017; Udall and Overpeck, 2017; Hoerling et al., 2019<br /><br /><br />Western US: Das et al., 2011; Gonzalez et al., 2018<br /><br /><br />US: McCabe and Wolock, 2016		\| Basin specific: Vano et al. 2012, 2014; Woodhouse et al., 2016, 2021; McCabe et al. 2017; Udall and Overpeck, 2017; Hoerling et al., 2019<br /><br /><br />Western US: Das et al., 2011; Gonzalez et al., 2018<br /><br /><br />US: McCabe and Wolock, 2016
	\| The Upper Colorado River Basin in 2020 and 2021 had unexpectly low run-off volumes.		\| The Upper Colorado River Basin in 2020 and 2021 had unexpectly low run-off volumes.
	\|-		\|-
	\| 4. Extensive wildfires		\| Extensive wildfires
	\| More areas burned		\| More areas burned
	\| - Public safety threatened<br />- Air quality declines<br />- Water quality declines<br />- Increased erosion		\| - Public safety threatened<br />- Air quality declines<br />- Water quality declines<br />- Increased erosion<br />
	\| increased temperatures, increase drying and reduce snowpack while lengthening the fire season		\| increased temperatures, <br />increase drying and reduce snowpack <br />while lengthening the fire season
	\| Western US: Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; Jenkins et al., 2014; Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Holden et al., 2018; Kean et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2020; Brey et al., 2021<br /><br /><br />US: Wehner et al., 2017		\| Western US: Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; Jenkins et al., 2014; Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Holden et al., 2018; Kean et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2020; Brey et al., 2021<br /><br /><br />US: Wehner et al., 2017
	\| In 2020, Colorado experienced the three largest wildfires in recorded history.		\| In 2020, Colorado experienced the three largest wildfires in recorded history.
	\|-		\|-
	\| 5. Short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks		\| Short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks
	\| Precipitation intensity increases; each storm brings more water		\| Precipitation intensity increases; each storm brings more water
	\| - Flooding<br />- Increased erosion<br />- Dam safety concerns<br />+ Increased groundwater recharge in some locations<br />+ Drought relief		\| - Flooding<br />- Increased erosion<br />- Dam safety concerns<br />+ Increased groundwater recharge in some locations<br />+ Drought relief
	\| a warmer atmosphere holds more water, so when it rains or snows there a great chance that more precipitation will fall in any given event; additionally, storm are now developing in warmer and more humid environments, ocean surface temperatures drive an increase worldwide in size and amount of storms		\| a warmer atmosphere holds more <br />water, so when it rains or snows there a great chance that more precipitation<br /> will fall in any given event; <br />additionally, storm are now developing<br /> in warmer and more humid<br /> environments, ocean surface temperatures drive an increase <br />worldwide in size and amount of storms
	\| Basin specific: Gutmann et al., 2016; Shamir et al., 2019; Corringham et al., 2019<br /><br /><br />Western US: Zhu and Newell, 1994; Corbosiero et al., 2009; Dettinger, 2013; Rutz et al., 2015; Alexander et al., 2015; Swales et al., 2016; Demaria et al., 2019; Gershunov et al., 2019; Davenport et al., 2020; Payne et al., 2020; Rhoades et al., 2020; <br /><br /><br />US: Easterling et al., 2017; Kossin et al., 2017<br /><br /><br />Global: Trenberth, 2011; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014; Swann et al., 2016; Fischer and Knutti, 2016; Simpson et al., 2016; Kossin et al., 2017; Pendergrass et al., 2017; Sippel et al., 2019; Heinze-Deml et al., 2020;		\| Basin specific: Gutmann et al., 2016; Shamir et al., 2019; Corringham et al., 2019<br /><br /><br />Western US: Zhu and Newell, 1994; Corbosiero et al., 2009; Dettinger, 2013; Rutz et al., 2015; Alexander et al., 2015; Swales et al., 2016; Demaria et al., 2019; Gershunov et al., 2019; Davenport et al., 2020; Payne et al., 2020; Rhoades et al., 2020; <br /><br /><br />US: Easterling et al., 2017; Kossin et al., 2017<br /><br /><br />Global: Trenberth, 2011; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014; Swann et al., 2016; Fischer and Knutti, 2016; Simpson et al., 2016; Kossin et al., 2017; Pendergrass et al., 2017; Sippel et al., 2019; Heinze-Deml et al., 2020;
	\| In 2013, the “Front Range Flood” in Colorado resulted from record rainfall and urban runoff volumes.		\| In 2013, the “Front Range Flood” in Colorado resulted from record rainfall and urban runoff volumes.
	\|-		\|-
	\| ~~5b.~~ Short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks		\| Short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks
	\| Rapid onset dry year (flash drought)		\| Rapid onset dry year (flash drought)
	\| - Water shortages<br />- Agricultural losses<br />- Recreation limited<br />- Increased fire danger		\| - Water shortages<br />- Agricultural losses<br />- Recreation limited<br />- Increased fire danger
Line 53:		Line 53:
	\| Recent example not within the Colorado River Basin.		\| Recent example not within the Colorado River Basin.
	\|-		\|-
	\| 6. Amplified wet and dry swings (climate whiplash)		\| Amplified wet and dry swings (climate whiplash)
	\| Multi-year dry spells broken by a couple of very wet years<br />		\| Multi-year dry spells broken by a couple of very wet years<br />
	\| - Dam safety concerns<br />- Increased erosion<br />- Management challenge (expecting drought and get too much rain instead)		\| - Dam safety concerns<br />- Increased erosion<br />- Management challenge (expecting drought and get too much rain instead)
Line 60:		Line 60:
	\| July 2021 was the wettest month on record in Tucson, which came after the "nonsoon" of 2020.		\| July 2021 was the wettest month on record in Tucson, which came after the "nonsoon" of 2020.
	\|-		\|-
	\| 7. Dramatic decline in monsoons		\| Dramatic decline in monsoons
	\| Timing of monsoon is later or no monsoon<br />Average rainfall from monsoons lessens<br />Change in frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events		\| Timing of monsoon is later or no monsoon<br />Average rainfall from monsoons lessens<br />Change in frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events
	\| - Water shortages<br />- Agriculture loses<br />- Less relief from summer heat		\| - Water shortages<br />- Agriculture loses<br />- Less relief from summer heat