Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) - Revision history

TanyaPetach at 14:02, 2 December 2022

2022-12-02T14:02:45Z

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	This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.		This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.

	===[http://~~bor~~.~~colorado~~.~~edu~~/~~public_web~~/~~crstmwg~~/~~MTOM~~/~~MTOM_Stakeholder_User_Manual2~~.~~0_Final~~.pdf MTOM Technical User Guide]===		===[http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/FiveYear/2020/References/MTOMstakeholderUserManual2.0.pdf MTOM Technical User Guide]===

	This Reclamation document provides step-by-step guidance for running MTOM and analyzing the results produced by the model. The intended audience for this guide is technical modeling personnel and researchers.		This Reclamation document provides step-by-step guidance for running MTOM and analyzing the results produced by the model. The intended audience for this guide is technical modeling personnel and researchers.

Admin: /* General Modeling Information */

2021-04-19T20:18:51Z

General Modeling Information

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	[https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/ColoRiver_StateOfScience_WWA_2020_Chapter_3.pdf Chapter 3] of the State of the Science report, ''Primary Planning Tools,'' describes the three primary Reclamation system models in detail.		[https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/ColoRiver_StateOfScience_WWA_2020_Chapter_3.pdf Chapter 3] of the State of the Science report, ''Primary Planning Tools,'' describes the three primary Reclamation system models in detail.

	===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===		===MTOM/CRSS [https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===

	This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.		This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.

Admin: /* Additional Resources */

2021-04-19T20:18:11Z

Additional Resources

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:18, 19 April 2021
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	This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.		This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.

	===[http://bor.colorado.edu/public_web/crstmwg/MTOM/MTOM_Stakeholder_User_Manual2.0_Final.pdf MTOM Technical User Guide]]		===[http://bor.colorado.edu/public_web/crstmwg/MTOM/MTOM_Stakeholder_User_Manual2.0_Final.pdf MTOM Technical User Guide]===

	This Reclamation document provides step-by-step guidance for running MTOM and analyzing the results produced by the model. The intended audience for this guide is technical modeling personnel and researchers.		This Reclamation document provides step-by-step guidance for running MTOM and analyzing the results produced by the model. The intended audience for this guide is technical modeling personnel and researchers.

Admin: /* Additional Resources */

2021-04-19T20:17:57Z

Additional Resources

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:17, 19 April 2021
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	===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===		===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===

	This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.		This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.

			===[http://bor.colorado.edu/public_web/crstmwg/MTOM/MTOM_Stakeholder_User_Manual2.0_Final.pdf MTOM Technical User Guide]]

			This Reclamation document provides step-by-step guidance for running MTOM and analyzing the results produced by the model. The intended audience for this guide is technical modeling personnel and researchers.

	==Research Directions==		==Research Directions==

Admin at 18:21, 19 April 2021

2021-04-19T18:21:54Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:21, 19 April 2021
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	The MTOM/CRSS projections of future conditions of the Colorado River system are updated by Reclamation at least twice annually (January and August). The linked page shows the results of the most recent projections in tabular form, along with a description of the modeling approach and assumptions.		The MTOM/CRSS projections of future conditions of the Colorado River system are updated by Reclamation at least twice annually (January and August). The linked page shows the results of the most recent projections in tabular form, along with a description of the modeling approach and assumptions.

	===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-alt-hydrology.html Colorado River System Projected Future Conditions - Alternative Future Hydrology Scenarios]===		====[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-alt-hydrology.html Colorado River System Projected Future Conditions - Alternative Future Hydrology Scenarios]====

	This Reclamation page shows the same results of the latest MTOM/CRSS projections as the [https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-5year-projections.html Colorado River System 5-Year Projected Future Conditions] page, but in time-series form, and with an explanation of the development of the ''alternative future hydrology scenarios'', i.e., the Stress Test hydrology.		This Reclamation page shows the same results of the latest MTOM/CRSS projections as the [https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-5year-projections.html Colorado River System 5-Year Projected Future Conditions] page, but in time-series form, and with an explanation of the development of the ''alternative future hydrology scenarios'', i.e., the Stress Test hydrology.
			</onlyinclude>

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==
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	===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===		===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===

			This Reclamation page summarizes the key components of the MTOM/CRSS runs: the models' setups and assumptions, the inflow scenarios, and the reservoir operations rules.

	==Research Directions==		==Research Directions==

Admin at 18:17, 19 April 2021

2021-04-19T18:17:35Z

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	==Relevance==		==Relevance==

	The envelope of the MTOM (and MTOM+CRSS) projections of Lake Powell and Lake Mead levels over the 5-year mid-term period provides guidance to Reclamation and basin stakeholders about the probability of undesirable system outcomes over that period (e.g., Lower Basin delivery reductions, reservoir levels falling below the power pool). This information can help water managers and users prepare for those outcomes in accordance with their own risk tolerances.		The envelope of the MTOM (and MTOM/CRSS) projections of Lake Powell and Lake Mead levels over the 5-year mid-term period provides guidance to Reclamation and basin stakeholders about the probability of undesirable system outcomes over that period (e.g., Lower Basin delivery reductions, reservoir levels falling below the power pool). This information can help water managers and users prepare for those outcomes in accordance with their own risk tolerances.

	==Model Structure and Operation==		==Model Structure and Operation==
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	<onlyinclude>		<onlyinclude>
	===Colorado River System 5-Year Projected Future Conditions===		===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-5year-projections.html Colorado River System 5-Year Projected Future Conditions]===

	~~These~~ MTOM-CRSS projections of future conditions of the Colorado River system are updated by Reclamation at least twice annually (January and August). The linked page shows the results of the most recent projections in tabular form, along with a description of the modeling approach and assumptions.		The MTOM/CRSS projections of future conditions of the Colorado River system are updated by Reclamation at least twice annually (January and August). The linked page shows the results of the most recent projections in tabular form, along with a description of the modeling approach and assumptions.

			===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-alt-hydrology.html Colorado River System Projected Future Conditions - Alternative Future Hydrology Scenarios]===

			This Reclamation page shows the same results of the latest MTOM/CRSS projections as the [https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-5year-projections.html Colorado River System 5-Year Projected Future Conditions] page, but in time-series form, and with an explanation of the development of the ''alternative future hydrology scenarios'', i.e., the Stress Test hydrology.

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==
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	[https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/ColoRiver_StateOfScience_WWA_2020_Chapter_3.pdf Chapter 3] of the State of the Science report, ''Primary Planning Tools,'' describes the three primary Reclamation system models in detail.		[https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/ColoRiver_StateOfScience_WWA_2020_Chapter_3.pdf Chapter 3] of the State of the Science report, ''Primary Planning Tools,'' describes the three primary Reclamation system models in detail.

			===[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/model-info.html General Modeling Information]===



	==Research Directions==		==Research Directions==

Admin: /* Data and Tools */

2021-04-19T18:11:00Z

Data and Tools

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	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==

	===24-~~Month Study Reports~~===		<onlyinclude>
			===Colorado River System 5-Year Projected Future Conditions===

			These MTOM-CRSS projections of future conditions of the Colorado River system are updated by Reclamation at least twice annually (January and August). The linked page shows the results of the most recent projections in tabular form, along with a description of the modeling approach and assumptions.

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==

Admin: /* Model Structure and Operation */

2021-04-19T17:25:45Z

Model Structure and Operation

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:25, 19 April 2021
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	In the most recent (January 2021) MTOM/CRSS analyses, two sets of inflow sequences were used for years 2-5 in CRSS: 113 sequences sampled from the 1906-2018 natural flow hydrology (''Full hydrology''), and 31 sequences sampled from the 1988-2018 hydrology (''Stress Test hydrology''). Because all of the CRSS sequences branch out from the end of each of the 35 MTOM sequences for year 1, the MTOM/CRSS coupling produces a total of 3,955 traces (35 x 113) for years 2-5 under the Full hydrology, and 1,085 traces (35 x 31) for years 2-5 under the Stress Test hydrology.		In the most recent (January 2021) MTOM/CRSS analyses, two sets of inflow sequences were used for years 2-5 in CRSS: 113 sequences sampled from the 1906-2018 natural flow hydrology (''Full hydrology''), and 31 sequences sampled from the 1988-2018 hydrology (''Stress Test hydrology''). Because all of the CRSS sequences branch out from the end of each of the 35 MTOM sequences for year 1, the MTOM/CRSS coupling produces a total of 3,955 traces (35 x 113) for years 2-5 under the Full hydrology, and 1,085 traces (35 x 31) for years 2-5 under the Stress Test hydrology.

	Reclamation then computes and reports the ''percent'' of these traces in which particular event or system condition occurs, as shown in Figure X. These percentages ~~can be taken to~~ represent the actual future risk only ~~insofar~~ as the modeling assumptions ~~are true~~.		Reclamation then computes and reports the ''percent'' of these traces in which particular event or system condition occurs, as shown in Figure X. These percentages represent the actual future risk only if ''all'' of the modeling assumptions are correct, so it is more reasonable to treat the numbers as conditional risk estimates, where the conditions are the key modeling assumptions.

	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==

Admin at 20:51, 14 April 2021

2021-04-14T20:51:32Z

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	Water demands are handled in MTOM the same way as in 24MS. Upper Basin water demands are not explicitly modeled (with three exceptions); instead, the inflow sequences from CBRFC have the expected Upper Basin diversions and consumptive use already subtracted from the flows that would have occurred under natural conditions. The three exceptions are the Gunnison Tunnel, Azotea Tunnel, and Navajo Indian Irrigation Project, which are represented as separate diversions in MTOM. Lower Basin water demands are modeled based on monthly schedules provided by the water users.		Water demands are handled in MTOM the same way as in 24MS. Upper Basin water demands are not explicitly modeled (with three exceptions); instead, the inflow sequences from CBRFC have the expected Upper Basin diversions and consumptive use already subtracted from the flows that would have occurred under natural conditions. The three exceptions are the Gunnison Tunnel, Azotea Tunnel, and Navajo Indian Irrigation Project, which are represented as separate diversions in MTOM. Lower Basin water demands are modeled based on monthly schedules provided by the water users.

	The output from MTOM consists of ~5 years of monthly inflows, projected elevations and storage, releases downstream, and hydropower generation (if applicable) for the same 12 reservoirs as in 24MS. But as indicated above, this "raw" output is seldom distributed in its entirety. Instead, the main operational use of MTOM output is to initialize CRSS for the MTOM/CRSS mid-term risk analyses. For this purpose, only the end-of-year 1 reservoir elevations projected by MTOM are retained; the 35 sets of elevations are passed on to CRSS to be each used as the starting point for multiple CRSS runs that project the system outcomes for years 2-5. In the most recent (January 2021) MTOM/CRSS analyses, two sets of inflow sequences were used for years 2-5 in CRSS: 113 sequences sampled from the 1906-2018 natural flow hydrology (Full hydrology), and 31 sequences sampled from the 1988-2018 hydrology (Stress Test hydrology)		The output from MTOM consists of ~5 years of monthly inflows, projected elevations and storage, releases downstream, and hydropower generation (if applicable) for the same 12 reservoirs as in 24MS. But as indicated above, this "raw" output is seldom distributed in its entirety. Instead, the main operational use of MTOM output is to initialize CRSS for the MTOM/CRSS mid-term risk analyses. For this purpose, only the end-of-year 1 reservoir elevations projected by MTOM are retained; the 35 sets of elevations are passed on to CRSS to be each used as the starting point for multiple CRSS runs that project the system outcomes for years 2-5.

			In the most recent (January 2021) MTOM/CRSS analyses, two sets of inflow sequences were used for years 2-5 in CRSS: 113 sequences sampled from the 1906-2018 natural flow hydrology (''Full hydrology''), and 31 sequences sampled from the 1988-2018 hydrology (''Stress Test hydrology''). Because all of the CRSS sequences branch out from the end of each of the 35 MTOM sequences for year 1, the MTOM/CRSS coupling produces a total of 3,955 traces (35 x 113) for years 2-5 under the Full hydrology, and 1,085 traces (35 x 31) for years 2-5 under the Stress Test hydrology.

			Reclamation then computes and reports the ''percent'' of these traces in which particular event or system condition occurs, as shown in Figure X. These percentages can be taken to represent the actual future risk only insofar as the modeling assumptions are true.

	==Data and Tools==		==Data and Tools==
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	===24-Month Study Reports===		===24-Month Study Reports===

	The output of the primary monthly run of the 24-Month Study Model (using ''most probable'' inflows) is released around the 15th of each month. These results are formatted by Reclamation as a standardized set of data tables totaling 17 pages. The Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional offices package this set of data tables differently; Upper Colorado adds a 9-page narrative summary for the Upper Colorado reservoirs, while Lower Colorado adds a single cover page with very a brief summary. Note that both report "flavors" contain the results for both Upper Basin and Lower Basin reservoirs.

	~~[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Upper Colorado Region~~

	~~[https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/index.html 24-Month Study Reports] - as distributed by Lower Colorado Region~~

	~~===Supplemental 24-Month Study runs===~~

	As noted above, two supplemental runs of 24MS are performed either 4 times per year, or monthly, depending on projected reservoir conditions. These runs, based on ''probable minimum'' and ''probable maximum'' inflows, bracket the uncertainty in the primary run.

	~~[https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/ Probable Min/Probable Max runs]~~

	==Additional Resources==		==Additional Resources==

Admin: /* Contact */

2021-04-14T20:35:40Z

Contact

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	==Contact==		==Contact==

	MTOM is maintained and updated by Reclamation Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional staff who are based at the University of Colorado Boulder's Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES). The RiverWare modeling platform was also developed at CADSWES.		MTOM is maintained and updated by Reclamation Upper Colorado and Lower Colorado regional staff who are based at the University of Colorado Boulder's Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES), in consultation with Reclamation staff in other offices. The RiverWare modeling platform was also developed at CADSWES.

	For additional information or questions, contact them at ColoradoRiverModeling@usbr.gov.		For additional information or questions, contact them at ColoradoRiverModeling@usbr.gov.