New research

This section of the wiki highlights new research publications--peer-reviewed papers, book chapters, agency reports, and other documents--relevant to the management of water and related resources in the Colorado River Basin.

Below, the bibliographic information for those publications is organized chronologically, and then by the main topic. A link to the online publication is provided at the end of each listing, annotated with a ($) if the publication is behind a paywall. To obtain a copy of any publication behind a paywall, contact Jeff Lukas: jeff AT lukasclimate DOT com

Selected publications that are noteworthy and/or especially useful to basin stakeholders--whose titles are bold links below--have a dedicated Wiki page, including a plain-language summary of 500 words or less.

2021 (January - May)

Cross-cutting reports

Gangopadhyay, S., & McGuire, M. (2021). West-Wide Climate and Hydrology Assessment. Technical Memorandum ENV-2021-001, Bureau of Reclamation. 423pp.https://www.usbr.gov/climate/secure/docs/2021secure/westwidesecurereport.pdf

Reclamation. (2021a). Water Reliability in the West—2021 SECURE Water Act Report. Bureau of Reclamation. 60pp. https://www.usbr.gov/climate/secure/docs/2021secure/2021SECUREReport.pdf

Reclamation. (2021b). Colorado River Basin—SECURE Water Act Section 9503(c)—Report to Congress. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of Interior. 34 pp. https://www.usbr.gov/climate/secure/docs/2021secure/basinreports/ColoradoBasin.pdf

Weather and climate

Bennett, K. E., Talsma, C., and Boero, R. (2021). Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin. Water, 13(7), 978. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070978

Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., et al. (2021). Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2(2), 107–122. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6

Huang, H., Patricola, C. M., Bercos‐Hickey, E., et al. (2021). Sources of Subseasonal‐To‐Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034053

Mahoney, K., Scott, J. D., Alexander, M., et al. (2021). Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models. Climate Dynamics, 56(9–10), 3081–3102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05632-z

Mohsin, M., and Pilz, J. (2021). Stochastic model for drought analysis of the Colorado River Basin. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-01989-z

Osenga, E. C., Vano, J. A., and Arnott, J. C. (2021). A community‐supported weather and soil moisture monitoring database of the Roaring Fork catchment of the Colorado River Headwaters. Hydrological Processes, 35(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14081

Pascolini-Campbell, M., Reager, J. T., Chandanpurkar, H. A., and Rodell, M. (2021). A 10 per cent increase in global land evapotranspiration from 2003 to 2019. Nature, 593(7860), 543–547. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03503-5

Simpson, I. R., McKinnon, K. A., Davenport, F. V., et al. (2021). Emergent constraints on the large scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: Do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future? Journal of Climate, 1–62. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1

Szejner, P., Belmecheri, S., Babst, F., et al. (2021). Stable isotopes of tree rings reveal seasonal-to-decadal patterns during the emergence of a megadrought in the Southwestern US. Oecologia. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-021-04916-9

Towler, E., and Yates, D. (2021). Incorporating Multiyear Temperature Predictions for Water Resources Planning. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(2), 171–183. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0134.1

Williams, A. P., Anchukaitis, K. J., Woodhouse, C. A., et al. (2021). Tree Rings and Observations Suggest No Stable Cycles in Sierra Nevada Cool‐Season Precipitation. Water Resources Research, 57(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028599

Zhang, F., Biederman, J. A., Dannenberg, M. P., et al. (2021). Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092293

Hydrology and water availability

Brice, B., Guiterman, C. H., Woodhouse, C., et al. (2021). Comparing tree-ring based reconstructions of snowpack variability at different scales for the Navajo Nation. Climate Services, 22, 100213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100213

Darvishi, M., Destouni, G., Aminjafari, S., and Jaramillo, F. (2021). Multi-Sensor InSAR Assessment of Ground Deformations around Lake Mead and Its Relation to Water Level Changes. Remote Sensing, 13(3), 406. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030406

Elias, E., James, D., Heimel, S., et al. (2021). Implications of observed changes in high mountain snow water storage, snowmelt timing and melt window. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35, 100799. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100799

Fleck, J., and Udall, B. (2021). Managing Colorado River risk. Science, 372(6545), 885–885. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj5498

Fleming, S. W., Vesselinov, V. V., and Goodbody, A. G. (2021). Augmenting geophysical interpretation of data-driven operational water supply forecast modeling for a western US river using a hybrid machine learning approach. Journal of Hydrology, 597, 126327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126327

Gerlak, A. K., Jacobs, K. L., McCoy, A. L., et al. (2021). Scenario Planning: Embracing the Potential for Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin. Climatic Change, 165(1–2), 27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03013-3

Hannoun, D. (2021). The potential effects of climate change and drawdown on a newly constructed drinking water intake: Study case in Las Vegas, NV, USA. 13.

Heldmyer, A., Livneh, B., Molotch, N., and Rajagopalan, B. (2021). Investigating the Relationship Between Peak Snow‐Water Equivalent and Snow Timing Indices in the Western United States and Alaska. Water Resources Research, 57(5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029395

Lackner, C. P., Geerts, B., and Wang, Y. (2021). Impact of global warming on snow in ski areas: A case study using a regional climate simulation over the interior western United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0155.1

Li, Y., Gao, H., Allen, G. H., and Zhang, Z. (2021). Constructing Reservoir Area–Volume–Elevation Curve from TanDEM-X DEM Data. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 14, 2249–2257. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2021.3051103

Miller, O. L., Putman, A. L., Alder, J., et al. (2021). Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States. Journal of Hydrology X, 11, 100074. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100074

Musselman, K. N., Addor, N., Vano, J. A., and Molotch, N. P. (2021). Winter melt trends portend widespread declines in snow water resources. Nature Climate Change, 11(5), 418–424. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01014-9

Pascolini-Campbell, M., Reager, J. T., Chandanpurkar, H. A., and Rodell, M. (2021). A 10 per cent increase in global land evapotranspiration from 2003 to 2019. Nature, 593(7860), 543–547. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03503-5

Swanson, R. K., Springer, A. E., Kreamer, D. K., et al. (2021). Quantifying the base flow of the Colorado River: Its importance in sustaining perennial flow in northern Arizona and southern Utah (USA). Hydrogeology Journal, 29(2), 723–736. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02260-5

Woodhouse, C. A., Smith, R. M., McAfee, S. A., et al. (2021). Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future. Climate Services, 21, 100206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100206

Water use

Earp, K. J., and Moreo, M. T. (2021). Evaporation from Lake Mead and Lake Mohave, Nevada and Arizona, 2010–2019 (Open-File Report No. 2021–1022; 48 p.). U.S. Geological Survey.

Water quality and sediment

Cavallin, J. E., Battaglin, W. A., Beihoffer, J., et al. (2021). Effects-Based Monitoring of Bioactive Chemicals Discharged to the Colorado River before and after a Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plant Replacement. Environmental Science and Technology, 55(2), 974–984. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c05269

Kasprak, A., Sankey, J. B., and Butterfield, B. J. (2021). Future regulated flows of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon foretell decreased areal extent of sediment and increases in riparian vegetation. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), 014029. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc9e4

Mueller, E. R., and Grams, P. E. (2021). A Morphodynamic Model to Evaluate Long‐Term Sandbar Rebuilding Using Controlled Floods in the Grand Canyon. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093007

Rumsey, C. A., Miller, O., Hirsch, R. M., et al. (2021). Substantial Declines in Salinity Observed Across the Upper Colorado River Basin During the 20th Century, 1929–2019. Water Resources Research, 57(5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028581

Ecosystems and environment

Alizadeh, M. R., Abatzoglou, J. T., Luce, C. H., et al. (2021). Warming enabled upslope advance in western US forest fires. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(22), e2009717118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118

Bransky, N., Sankey, T., B. Sankey, J., et al. (2021). Monitoring Tamarix Changes Using WorldView-2 Satellite Imagery in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. Remote Sensing, 13(5), 958. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050958

Dibble, K. L., Yackulic, C. B., Kennedy, T. A., et al. (2021). Water storage decisions will determine the distribution and persistence of imperiled river fishes. Ecological Applications, 31(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2279

Heidari, H., Warziniack, T., Brown, T. C., and Arabi, M. (2021). Impacts of Climate Change on Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. National Forests and Grasslands. Forests, 12(2), 139. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020139

Kasprak, A., Sankey, J. B., and Butterfield, B. J. (2021). Future regulated flows of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon foretell decreased areal extent of sediment and increases in riparian vegetation. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), 014029. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc9e4

Koehn, C. R., Petrie, M. D., Bradford, J. B., et al. (2021). Seasonal Precipitation and Soil Moisture Relationships Across Forests and Woodlands in the Southwestern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 126(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG005986

Nagler, P. L., Barreto-Muñoz, A., Chavoshi Borujeni, S., et al. (2021). Riparian Area Changes in Greenness and Water Use on the Lower Colorado River in the USA from 2000 to 2020. Remote Sensing, 13(7), 1332. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13071332

Palmquist, E. C., Allan, G. J., Ogle, K., et al. (2021). Riverine complexity and life history inform restoration in riparian environments in the southwestern U.S. Restoration Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13418

Pennock, C. A., and Gido, K. B. (2021). Spatial and temporal dynamics of fish assemblages in a desert reservoir over 38 years. Hydrobiologia, 848(6), 1231–1248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-021-04514-z

Waldo, S., Deemer, B. R., Bair, L. S., and Beaulieu, J. J. (2021). Greenhouse gas emissions from an arid-zone reservoir and their environmental policy significance: Results from existing global models and an exploratory dataset. Environmental Science and Policy, 120, 53–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.02.006

Zamora, H. A., Eastoe, C. J., McIntosh, J. C., and Flessa, K. W. (2021). Groundwater Origin and Dynamics on the Eastern Flank of the Colorado River Delta, Mexico. Hydrology, 8(2), 80. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020080

Societal and economic issues

Tanana, H., Garcia, J., Olaya, A., et al. (2021). Universal Access to Clean Water for Tribes in the Colorado River Basin. Water and Tribes Initiative, Colorado River Basin. http://www.naturalresourcespolicy.org/docs/water-tribes/wti-full-report-4.21.pdf

Water law and policy

MacDonnell, L. J. (2021a). Colorado River Basin. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3780342

MacDonnell, L. J. (2021b). The Law of the Colorado River: Coping with Severe Sustained Drought, Part II. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3811024

Rivera-Torres, M., Gerlak, A. K., and Jacobs, K. L. (2021). Lesson learning in the Colorado River Basin. Water International, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2021.1913782

Wheeler, K., Kuhn, E., Bruckerhoff, L., et al. (2021). Alternative Management Paradigms for the Future of the Colorado and Green Rivers (White Paper 6; Future of the Colorado River Project, p. 91). Center for Colorado River Studies.