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Title	Date	Authors	Cite	Abstract
Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow	2024-04-19	Hoerling et al.	Hoerling, Martin P., Jon K. Eischeid, Henry F. Diaz, Balaji Rajagopolan, and Eric Kuhn. “Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow.” Journal of Climate, April 19, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0617.1.	Abstract Of concern to Colorado River management, as operating guidelines post-2026 are being considered, is whether water resource recovery from low flows during 2000–2020 is possible. Here we analyze new simulations from the sixth generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to determine plausible climate impacts on Colorado River flows for 2026–2050 when revised guidelines would operate. We constrain projected flows for Lee Ferry, the gauge through which 85% of the river flow passes, using its estimated sensitivity to meteorological variability together with CMIP6 projected precipitation and temperature changes. The critical importance of precipitation, especially its natural variability, is emphasized. Model projections indicate increased precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin due to climate change, which alone increases river flows 5%–7% (relative to a 2000–2020 climatology). Depending on the river’s temperature sensitivity, this wet signal compensates some, if not all, of the depleting effects from basin warming. Considerable internal decadal precipitation variability (~5% of the climatological mean) is demonstrated, driving a greater range of plausible Colorado River flow changes for 2026–2050 than previously surmised from treatment of temperature impacts alone: the overall precipitation-induced Lee Ferry flow changes span −25% to +40% contrasting with a −30% to −5% range from expected warming effects only. Consequently, extreme low and high flows are more likely. Lee Ferry flow projections, conditioned on initial drought states akin to 2000–2020, reveal substantial recovery odds for water resources, albeit with elevated risks of even further flow declines than in recent decades.
Record Low North American Monsoon Rainfall in 2020 Reignites Drought over the American Southwest	03/2022	Hoell et al.	Hoell, Andrew, Xiao-Wei Quan, Martin Hoerling, Rong Fu, Justin Mankin, Isla Simpson, Richard Seager, et al. “Record Low North American Monsoon Rainfall in 2020 Reignites Drought over the American Southwest.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103, no. 3 (2022): S26–32. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0129.1.
Causes for the Century-Long Decline in Colorado River Flow	2019-08-27	Hoerling et al.	Hoerling, Martin P., Joseph J. Barsugli, B. Livneh, J. Eischeid, X. Quan, and A. Badger. “Causes for the Century-Long Decline in Colorado River Flow.” Journal of Climate, August 27, 2019, JCLI-D-19-0207.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0207.1.
Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow	01/2014	Vano et al.	Vano, Julie A., Bradley Udall, Daniel R. Cayan, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Levi D. Brekke, Tapash Das, Holly C. Hartmann, et al. “Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95, no. 1 (2014): 59–78. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00228.1.
Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions	2013	Hoerling et al.	Hoerling, Martin P., Michael Dettinger, Klaus Wolter, Jeffrey J. Lukas, Jon Eischeid, Rama Nemani, Brant Liebmann, Kenneth E. Kunkel, and Arun Kumar. “Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by Gregg Garfin, Angela Jardine, Robert Merideth, Mary Black, and Sarah LeRoy, 74–100. Washington, DC: Island Press/Center for Resource Economics, 2013. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-484-0_5.	This chapter assesses weather and climate variability and trends in the Southwest, using observed climate and paleoclimate records. It analyzes the last 100 years of climate variability in comparison to the last 1,000 years, and links the important features of evolving climate conditions to river flow variability in four of the region's major drainage basins. The chapter closes with an assessment of the monitoring and scientific research needed to increase confidence in understanding when climate episodes, events, and phenomena are attributable to human-caused climate change.
Colorado River Basin hydroclimatic variability	06/2012	Nowak et al.	Nowak, Kenneth, Martin P. Hoerling, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Edith Zagona. “Colorado River Basin Hydroclimatic Variability.” Journal of Climate 25, no. 12 (2012): 4389–4403. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00406.1.	An analysis of annual hydroclimatic variability in the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) for the period of 1906–2006 was performed to understand the dominant modes of multidecadal variability. First, waveletbased spectral analysis was employed for streamﬂow at Lees Ferry, Arizona (aggregate location for UCRB ﬂow), which identiﬁed two signiﬁcant modes: a ‘‘low frequency’’ (;64-yr period) mode and a strong ‘‘decadal’’ (;15-yr period) component active only in recent decades. Subsequent investigation of temperature and precipitation data for the UCRB indicated that the low-frequency variability is associated with temperature via modulation of runoff efﬁciency while the decadal is strongly tied to moisture delivery. Simple hydrology and climate model experiments are also provided to support the aforementioned ﬁndings.
Regional precipitation trends: distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing	04/2010	Hoerling et al.	Hoerling, Martin P., Jon Eischeid, and Judith Perlwitz. “Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing.” Journal of Climate 23, no. 8 (2010): 2131–45. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1.	In this study, the nature and causes for observed regional precipitation trends during 1977–2006 are diagnosed. It is found that major features of regional trends in annual precipitation during 1977–2006 are consistent with an atmospheric response to observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This includes drying over the eastern Paciﬁc Ocean that extends into western portions of the Americas related to a cooling of eastern Paciﬁc SSTs, and broad increases in rainfall over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere, including a Sahelian rainfall recovery and increased wetness over the Indo–West Paciﬁc related to North Atlantic and Indo–West Paciﬁc ocean warming. It is further determined that these relationships between SST and rainfall change are generally not symptomatic of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The intensity of regional trends simulated in climate models using observed time variability in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosol, and solar and volcanic aerosol forcing are appreciably weaker than those observed and also weaker than those simulated in atmospheric models using only observed SST forcing. The pattern of rainfall trends occurring in response to such external radiative forcing also departs signiﬁcantly from observations, especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Paciﬁc and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas.
Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate?	08/2009	Rajagopalan et al.	Rajagopalan, Balaji, Kenneth Nowak, James Prairie, Martin Hoerling, Benjamin Harding, Joseph Barsugli, Andrea Ray, and Bradley Udall. “Water Supply Risk on the Colorado River: Can Management Mitigate?” Water Resources Research 45, no. 8 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007652.
Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation	2008	Ray et al.	Ray, Andrea J., Joseph J. Barsugli, K. B. Averyt, K. Wolter, Martin P. Hoerling, N. Doesken, B. Udall, and R. S. Webb. “Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation,” 2008. https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/WWA_ClimateChangeColoradoReport_2008.pdf.